Photo-illustration by Realtor.com. Source: Getty Images
Part of the American dream is the promise that everyone can choose where they want to live. Whether that means a move across town or a continent-spanning relocation, we’re all free to pack up and head to where our hearts lead us.
And it might come as no surprise that recently, Americans have been drawn south—beckoned by warmer weather, bigger homes, and more space, according to new U.S. Census Bureau data that shows population trends in counties across the country from July 1, 2022, to July 1, 2023.
This has broadly been the case since the COVID-19 pandemic, and 2023 continued to see high-priced, coastal metropolitan areas lose population, while still-sprawling suburbs in Florida, Texas, and Arizona are among the areas with the fastest growth.
While these migration patterns are interesting on their own, we wanted to dig deeper. To do that, we took each of the top 10 counties where the Census found the population to be growing—or shrinking—the most. We then tallied the total number of clicks on Realtor.com® real estate listings in those areas, as well as where these home shoppers claimed to be based. From there, it was easy to see certain patterns on comings and goings that you might find surprising. It might even help point you to where all your neighbors are moving and you might want to follow. Take a look.
America’s fastest-growing counties
The South dominates the Census Bureau’s list of fastest-growing counties. Of the 10 fastest-growing counties in the country, eight are in Florida and Texas. The remaining two spots are occupied by a county in Arizona and another in South Carolina.
This migration toward warmer climes makes sense. The allure of the South has only intensified since COVID-19, reflecting a shift toward spacious, affordable living, and away from high-priced coastal metros.
The flow of New Yorkers to Florida might be a cliché, but the data shows New York City residents consistently looking into Florida’s fastest-growing counties, where there’s a promise of larger homes for significantly less.
In Polk County, FL, the fastest-growing county in the country in 2023, homes offer more space at a fraction of New York City prices.
In Texas and Arizona, growth appears to be fueled more by nearby interest, with residents seeking more affordable suburban comforts close to, but distinct from, the urban hustle.
In the five Texas counties that make the 10 fastest-growing counties list, two are on the outer edge of the Houston metro area, two sit just north of the Dallas–Fort Worth metro, and the last is directly north of Austin.
Price is a major reason, says Jordan Marie Schilleci, a real estate agent and the owner of Jo & Co. Realty Group in Montgomery County, TX.
“Dallas is growing more unaffordable,” she says, comparing it to the Texas counties with rapid growth. “They have similar job markets—they’re both robust—so it’s really easy for someone to transition to a place like Montgomery County, which has a lot of affordable homes.”
In Arizona’s Pinal County, a lot of attention is coming from the metro behemoth of Maricopa County directly to the north—where homes are about 40% more expensive—Tucson’s Pima County to the south, and Los Angeles County, where homes are more than twice as expensive.
America’s fastest-shrinking counties
The movement toward suburban and semirural counties highlights a realignment of what U.S. home shoppers are looking for: more space, affordability, and improved quality of life away from dense urban centers. This shift, amplified since the pandemic’s onset, shows up strong in the latest Census Bureau data, with significant contractions in major urban hubs.
Los Angeles County leads the exodus, shedding over 100,000 residents, with Chicago’s Cook County, IL, and some of New York City’s boroughs—Brooklyn, the Bronx, and Queens—also seeing notable declines.
Riverside, CA
Getty Images
So where are these disillusioned urbanites heading? In Los Angeles, many are looking toward Riverside and San Bernardino counties for better value without leaving the metro far behind. The same trend is clear in San Diego and Orange County, where home shoppers are looking toward the same, less dense, more affordable Riverside and San Bernardino counties.
As Sergio Salazar, a broker associate at Vylla Home in Riverside, notes, Riverside’s median home price is significantly lower than in Los Angeles.
“Lots of buyers from L.A. County are drawn by the price per square foot,” he says. “It’s more bang for your buck.”
On the other hand, Cook County residents are most often looking at neighboring counties within Illinois, signaling a preference for suburban life over urban Chicago.
Those looking to leave New York City’s outer boroughs, the data shows, are drawn to areas farther from the heart of New York. They’re looking to Staten Island (Richmond County), Long Island (Suffolk and Nassau counties), the Hudson Valley north of New York City (Westchester County), and neighboring areas in Connecticut (Fairfield County).
To be fair, moving from Brooklyn, the Bronx, or Queens to areas farther from New York City has been and continues to be a predictable cycle, says Jeff Stineback, founder and team leader of the Long Island Home Team at Compass Real Estate on Long Island.
Those looking to leave New York City’s outer boroughs are drawn to areas farther from the heart of New York.
Getty Images
“That’s the natural progression,” he says, adding what’s different now is the changing perceptions about commutes due to remote and hybrid work.
“What we’re seeing here, I think, is somewhat of a permanent shift, probably most related to the way people work,” he explains.
If someone is trading a 45-minute subway trip, five days a week from Queens for a one-hour train trip from Long Island twice a week, he points out, “Why not take your family and move one county farther out, to get more house that costs less?”
If you’re curious to dive deeper into the data, here’s more on the fastest-growing and fastest-shrinking counties below, along with median list prices, square footage, and much more.
Top population growth counties
1. Polk County, Florida
A home for sale in Davenport, FL
Realtor.com
Median listing price: $350,000
Median square footage: 1,823
Top counties where home shoppers are based
New York County, NY
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 17%
Median listing price: $1,695,000
Median square footage: 1,400
Hillsborough County, FL
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 8%
Median listing price: $434,264
Median square footage: 1,792
Orange County, FL
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 6%
Median listing price: $439,450
Median square footage: 1,714
2. Montgomery County, TX
A home for sale in The Woodlands, TX
Realtor.com
Median listing price: $360,020
Median square footage: 2,136
Top counties where home shoppers are based
Harris County, TX
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 24%
Median listing price: $344,310
Median square footage: 2,010
Cook County, IL
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 14%
Median listing price: $335,700
Median square footage: 1,510
Dallas County, TX
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 6%
Median listing price: $395,750
Median square footage: 1,858
3. Pasco County, FL
A home for sale in Wesley Chapel, FL
Realtor.com
Median listing price: $364,311
Median square footage: 1,670
Top counties where home shoppers are based
Hillsborough County, FL
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 16%
Median listing price: $434,264
Median square footage: 1,792
New York County, NY
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 16%
Median listing price: $1,695,000
Median square footage: 1,400
Pinellas County, FL
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 9%
Median listing price: $457,000
Median square footage: 1,320
4. Collin County, TX
Realtor.com
Median listing price: $547,960
Median square footage: 2,463
Top counties where home shoppers are based
Dallas County, TX
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 24%
Median listing price: $395,750
Median square footage: 1,858
Cook County, IL
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 16%
Median listing price: $335,700
Median square footage: 1,510
Denton County, TX
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 10%
Median listing price: $512,500
Median square footage: 2,503
5. Denton County, TX
A home for sale in Double Oak, TX
Realtor.com
Median listing price: $512,500
Median square footage: 2,503
Top counties where home shoppers are based
Dallas County, TX
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 23%
Median listing price: $395,750
Median square footage: 1,858
Cook County, IL
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 18%
Median listing price: $335,700
Median square footage: 1,510
Tarrant County, TX
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 14%
Median listing price: $361,400
Median square footage: 1,971
6. Williamson County, TX
A home for sale in Georgetown, TX
Realtor.com
Median listing price: $496,808
Median square footage: 2,218
Top counties where home shoppers are based
Travis County, TX
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 21%
Median listing price: $637,975
Median square footage: 1,996
Cook County, IL
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 17%
Median listing price: $335,700
Median square footage: 1,510
Dallas County, TX
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 9%
Median listing price: $395,750
Median square footage: 1,858
7. Pinal County, AZ
A home for sale in San Tan Valley, AZ
Realtor.com
Median listing price: $406,500
Median square footage: 1,918
Top counties where home shoppers are based
Maricopa County, AZ
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 40%
Median listing price: $582,500
Median square footage: 2,082
Pima County, AZ
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 5%
Median listing price: $400,000
Median square footage: 1,852
Los Angeles County, CA
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 4%
Median listing price: $1,049,500
Median square footage: 1,771
8. Fort Bend County, TX
A home for sale in Missouri City, TX
Realtor.com
Median listing price: $424,968
Median square footage: 2,503
Top counties where home shoppers are based
Harris County, TX
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 28%
Median listing price: $344,310
Median square footage: 2,010
Cook County, IL
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 14%
Median listing price: $335,700
Median square footage: 1,510
Dallas County, TX
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 6%
Median listing price: $395,750
Median square footage: 1,858
9. Marion County, FL
Realtor.com
Median listing price: $307,000
Median square footage: 1,642
Top counties where home shoppers are based
New York County, NY
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 13%
Median listing price: $1,695,000
Median square footage: 1,400
Miami-Dade County, FL
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 6%
Median listing price: $662,425
Median square footage: 1,365
Orange County, FL
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 5%
Median listing price: $439,450
Median square footage: 1,714
10. Horry County, SC
A home for sale in Garden City Beach, SC
Median listing price: $324,900
Median square footage: 1,440
Top counties where home shoppers are based
New York County, NY
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 17%
Median listing price: $1,695,000
Median square footage: 1,400
Fulton County, GA
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 4%
Median listing price: $410,000
Median square footage: 1,800
Loudoun County, VA
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 2%
Median listing price: $814,065
Median square footage: 2,678
Top population contraction counties
1. Los Angeles County, CA
Median listing price: $1,049,500
Median square footage: 1,771
Top counties where home shoppers are based
Riverside County, CA
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 7%
Median listing price: $642,250
Median square footage: 1,970
San Bernardino County, CA
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 6%
Median listing price: $520,000
Median square footage: 1,620
Orange County, CA
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 5%
Median listing price: $1,349,500
Median square footage: 1,887
2. Cook County, IL
Median listing price: $335,700
Median square footage: 1,510
Top counties where home shoppers are based
Dupage County, IL
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 2%
Median listing price: $479,610
Median square footage: 2,012
Lake County, IL
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 2%
Median listing price: $486,175
Median square footage: 2,380
Will County, IL
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 2%
Median listing price: $384,900
Median square footage: 2,047
3. Kings County, NY
Median listing price: $821,250
Median square footage: 1,118
Top counties where home shoppers are based
Richmond County, NY
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 6%
Median listing price: $693,250
Median square footage: 1,467
Suffolk County, NY
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 6%
Median listing price: $937,473
Median square footage: 2,500
Nassau County, NY
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 5%
Median listing price: $849,000
Median square footage: 2,080
4. Queens County, NY
Median listing price: $576,944
Median square footage: 945 square feet
Top counties where home shoppers are based
Nassau County, NY
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 14%
Median listing price: $849,000
Median square footage: 2,080
Suffolk County, NY
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 7%
Median listing price: $937,473
Median square footage: 2,500
Westchester County, NY
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 4%
Median listing price: $649,000
Median square footage: 1,601
5. Miami-Dade County, FL
Median listing price: $662,425
Median square footage: 1,365
Top counties where home shoppers are based
Broward County, FL
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 18%
Median listing price: $434,950
Median square footage: 1,249
Palm Beach County, FL
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 10%
Median listing price: $562,500
Median square footage: 1,534
Lee County, FL
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 5%
Median listing price: $477,000
Median square footage: 1,748
6. Bronx County, NY
Median listing price: $339,000
Median square footage: 1,000
Top counties where home shoppers are based
Westchester County, NY
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 10%
Median listing price: $649,000
Median square footage: 1,601
Fairfield County, CT
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 7%
Median listing price: $869,450
Median square footage: 2,535
Suffolk County, NY
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 4%
Median listing price: $937,473
Median square footage: 2,500
7. Orange County, CA
Median listing price: $1,349,500
Median square footage: 1,887
Top counties where home shoppers are based
Los Angeles County, CA
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 13%
Median listing price: $1,049,500
Median square footage: 1,771
Riverside County, CA
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 12%
Median listing price: $642,250
Median square footage: 1,970
San Bernardino County, CA
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 7%
Median listing price: $520,000
Median square footage: 1,620
8. Dallas County, TX
Median listing price: $395,750
Median square footage: 1,858
Top counties where home shoppers are based
Tarrant County, TX
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 6%
Median listing price: $361,400
Median square footage: 1,971
Collin County, TX
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 5%
Median listing price: $547,960
Median square footage: 2,463
Denton County, TX
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 4%
Median listing price: $512,500
Median square footage: 2,503
9. San Diego County, CA
Median listing price: $996,500
Median square footage: 1,639
Top counties where home shoppers are based
Riverside County, CA
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 10%
Median listing price: $642,250
Median square footage: 1,970
San Bernardino County, CA
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 4%
Median listing price: $520,000
Median square footage: 1,620
Los Angeles County, CA
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 4%
Median listing price: $1,049,500
Median square footage: 1,771
10. Santa Clara County, CA
Median listing price: $1,424,944
Median square footage: 1,572
Top counties where home shoppers are based
Sacramento County, CA
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 4%
Median listing price: $552,500
Median square footage: 1,655
Contra Costa County, CA
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 4%
Median listing price: $748,700
Median square footage: 1,641
Alameda County, CA
Portion of out-of-county home shoppers: 3%
Median listing price: $849,722
Median square footage: 1,387
The post Americans Are Flocking to the South To Outrun Home Prices—This Is Where They’re Moving From appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com®.
