Photo-illustration by Realtor.com. Source: Getty Images
Despite the recent Valentine’s Day holiday, there was little for homebuyers and sellers to love about mortgage rates this week.
Rates for a 30-year fixed-rate home loan averaged 6.77% for the week ending Feb. 15, according to the latest Freddie Mac data. That’s up from last week’s 6.64% to the highest point this year.
As for where mortgage rates head next, that will depend on the U.S. Federal Reserve. But Realtor.com® senior economic research analyst Hannah Jones doesn’t believe that a rate cut is in the cards in the immediate future.
“The latest inflation and employment measures retained strength in January, confirming that a [Federal Reserve] rate cut is unlikely in March,” Jones predicts. “As a result, mortgage rates are likely to continue to hover in the high 6% range until more definitive progress has been made toward 2% inflation.”
While the Fed’s rates don’t dictate mortgage rates, the two often move in the same direction. So if the Fed keeps its rates higher for longer as it combats inflation, mortgage rates are likely to remain elevated.
This could have a chilling effect on real estate in the coming months.
“Rates may stay higher for longer, potentially slowing the spring homebuying season,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said in a statement.
Here’s what the latest mortgage rate movements and other housing statistics could mean for homebuyers and sellers in this latest installment of “How’s the Housing Market This Week?”
The mortgage rate big picture
Buyers and sellers should note this recent mortgage rate uptick does not mean it’s all doom and gloom for the spring housing market.
Last year, rates hit a 23-year high, landing at 7.79% on Oct. 26. So even though rates are up from last week, the big picture is rates have come down.
“Mortgage rates experienced a decline of over 1 percentage point from their recent peak, leading to a renewed interest from buyers entering the market,” says Realtor.com economist Jiayi Xu in her most recent analysis.
Rates have also been fairly stable, at least compared with last year. This is beneficial to both buyers and sellers since they can have a decent idea of what to expect in the near future when it comes to figuring out the costs of taking out a mortgage.
“The recent stability in rates—in sharp contrast to the volatility of 2023—is expected to make it less challenging for both homebuyers and sellers in planning their next moves,” says Xu.
Median list prices remain steady
The other big number buyers and sellers watch? Median home list prices, which hit a historic high of $449,000 in June 2022. This January, the median list price was a bit more buyer-friendly at $409,500.
While prices were up 0.3% for the week ending Feb. 10 compared with the same week last year, the growth rate has slowed.
“Home prices have been [in] a rough holding pattern since May 2023,” says Xu.
Housing inventory is picking up
The housing market has seen one welcome wild swerve of late: New listings were up by a whopping 9.5% for the week ending Feb. 10 compared with the same time last year.
“While the jump was not as big as the one we observed in the previous week, it was still an encouraging rate, which could further contribute to a recovery in active listings, meaning more options for home shoppers,” says Xu.
Overall housing inventory (of both new and old listings) is also up by 13.9% over year-ago levels.
“The housing market continued to witness a positive surge in listing activities in the past week, providing today’s prospective homebuyers with a more extensive array of options compared to a year ago,” says Xu.
Why the pace of home sales remains strong
Regardless of high mortgage rates and home prices, the pace of home sales is still moving at a brisk clip.
For the week ending Feb. 10, the typical home spent three fewer days on the market compared with the same week a year prior. (The average time on the market for January was 69 days.)
“For a 19th straight week, the typical home spent less time on the market than the same week one year ago,” says Xu.
This could mean buyers are taking note of the rise in inventory and pouncing when they see the right home.
The post Mortgage Rates Just Hit Their Highest Point This Year—and Here’s Where They’re Likely Heading Next appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com®.
